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"Wholesalers balance inventory with sales"

February 15, 2012

Balancing inventories is key to managing profitability and to avoiding fresh production cutbacks if demand continues to remain modest this year.

Data from Sageworks, a financial information company, shows that U.S. businesses are keeping their inventories in line with demand, with wholesalers, in particular, balancing their stockpiles from manufacturers and their sales to retailers.

Sageworks recently conducted a financial statement analysis of privately held wholesale merchants and found they’ve kept their inventory days steady despite sales growth. Private wholesalers, part of a $4 trillion sector that operates between manufacturing and retailing, in 2011 saw a second year in a row of double-digit sales growth as sales increased nearly 13 percent, according to Sageworks’ data. Sales had rebounded from a roughly 3 percent decline in 2009 to a nearly 11 percent increase during 2010. Across all industries, private-company sales rose about 7 percent last year.

Wholesalers’ inventory days, meanwhile, have stayed level at around 77 in 2009, 2010 and 2011, suggesting private suppliers are doing a good job of managing their stocks. Inventory days are calculated as inventories divided by cost of goods sold (COGS), multiplied by 365.

“The steadiness of wholesalers’ inventory days suggests that private wholesalers are doing a good job of managing inventories compared to their sales—they have a good sense of the demand they face now and will face in the near future,” said Sageworks analyst Libby Bierman. “This is especially true since inventory days remained stable even after the recession hit wholesalers.”

 Financial analysis of wholesale merchants: inventory days vs sales change

Data from the federal government on Tuesday also provided evidence of balanced business inventories. The U.S. Census Bureau reported manufacturers’ and trade inventories grew at a slower rate than their sales and shipments in December. Business inventories increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in December and were up 7.7 percent from a year earlier, compared with sales increases of 0.7 percent from November to December and 8.9 percent from a year earlier.

The total inventory-to-sales ratio ended the year at 1.26 on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with 1.28 at the end of 2010, the government said. Manufacturers ended 2011 with a 1.33 inventory-to-sales ratio, down from 1.34 in November. Retailers and merchant wholesalers’ inventory relative to sales was unchanged from November, when it was 1.32 and 1.15, respectively.

Sageworks, a financial information company, collects and analyzes data on the performance of privately held companies and provides financial forecasting software.

 

 

For more information, visit: http://www.forbes.com/sites/sageworks/2012/02/15/wholesalers-balance-inventory-with-sales/


How Some Dutch Children Go To School

February 7, 2012

The Dutch are bicycle fanatics. Almost half of daily travel in the Netherlands is by bicycle, while the country’s bike fleet comfortably outnumbers its 16 million people. Devotees of the national obsession have taken the next logical step by launching what is likely the first bicycle school bus.

 

Built by Tolkamp Metaalspecials, and sold by the De Cafe Racer company, the bicycle school bus (BCO in Dutch) is powered entirely by children and the one adult driver (although there is an electric motor for tough hills). Its simple design has eight sets of pedals for the kids (ages 4 to 12), a driver seat for the adult, and three bench seats for freeloaders. The top speed is about 10 miles per hour, and features a sound system and canvas awning to ward off rainy days.

 

Co.Exist spoke with Thomas Tolkamp who built the BCO about its origins and how the idea is catching on around the world for the sets of 11 lucky kids who get to arrive in school pedaling their own school bus. 

 

Co.Exist: What was the inspiration for the bus?

Tolkamp: I had already made other big bikes (like the Beerbikes) and a few years ago someone mailed me with the question if I could develop a bike especially for transporting kids. So for that other company (a child care) I made the first bicycle. Some other companies were also interested, so I began to produce more bicycles and have improved the bike. 

 

How many of these have been sold? How many are in use?

We’ve sold around 25 bikes. They are still all in use, except for the very first one, which was a prototype.
   

 

Does it only come in yellow?

No, we’ve sold bicycles in green, blue, purple, grey, red, yellow, but all [standard] colors are available.

 

How much does it cost?

Around $15,000, so less than a taxi or normal bus.
   

 

Can the kids alone make it go?

It’s possible to ride the bike without the motor when most seats are in use, but it wouldn’t be safe to ride without an adult.
    

 

Do you have plans to export it?

We have already exported some bikes to Belgium and Germany, but not this kind of bike. We have gotten frequent requests for information about the bike from all around the world (North America, South America, Europe) but we’ve never sold a bike outside of Europe.
   

 

Do you think it will work well in other countries, or is it something special about the Dutch culture?

I don’t know really, but what I do know is that people from all around the world like the idea. We have gotten interest from the press all over the world and all people are positive.

I hope I can sell the bike in the near future to a foreign country and see how people at other countries react on the bike. I think it will work well in other countries, because as more and more people [are] becoming fat and "green living" becomes more important, ideas like this get more popular.

 

For more information: http://www.fastcoexist.com/1679248/dutch-kids-pedal-their-own-bus-to-school


Staying Warm This Winter!

December 27, 2011

A new direction in staying warm: Inspired by a chair lift ride in the bitter cold, Toast Heated Clothes makes heated long underwear for people who work and play in the outdoors.


The patented new system of heated base layer integrates heat packs to keep your core warm. The tops have heat packs in the neck and lower back, and the pants have a heat pack just below the waistband.


Like large handwarmers, the heat packs are air activated and last 10 hours each. One or two is typically enough on mildly cold days; choose 3 or more for really cold weather. Once you try it, you’ll wear them all winter!


Designed by a former professional snowboarder, the Toast collection currently includes heated tops and bottoms for men and women. “They were inspired by snowboarding, but you can wear them walking the dog or shoveling snow” says designer Julia Aiken. "


“We have customers who wear them running, working outside and watching football. They’re also great for lounging on the couch in cold weather.”


All Toast styles are are made in North America using Polartec fabrics. Famous for inventing polar fleece, Polartec fabrics are the gold standard in warmth and wicking performance. "We deliberately source fabrics that are made in the USA" says Aiken.

 

 

Toast Heated Clothes

 

http://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/apparel-news/newsdetails.aspx?news_id=106419


Cotton prices soaring

December 28, 2010

High fiber prices are expected to create some upheaval throughout the supply chain in the coming months.

Rising costs of raw materials deep in the supply chain haven’t yet made their way through to retail apparel prices, but that can’t continue indefinitely, experts said. Volatile cotton prices in the last year have soared to record highs, wool prices are higher than they have been in years and synthetic fiber prices, while not seeing upward pressure anywhere near the natural fiber industries, are also elevated.

“Once these higher fiber prices filter through the supply chain, it’s going to be painful,” said Gary Raines, vice president of economics and analysis with FCStone Fibers & Textiles. “Who’s going to crack first? Will consumers willingly pay higher year-over-year prices for apparel? I’m not sure. 2011 is shaping up to be unlike any year we’ve seen. There is a major disjoint between retail trends and what’s happening on the fiber side.”

Prices will eventually come down from current elevated levels, but it could take some time and they won’t fall far enough to avoid creating reverberations in the apparel industry, Raines said, impacting profits all along the supply chain.

“The assumption is they’re going to have to pass some of this on at the retail level; the question is how much,” said Nate Herman, vice president of international trade for the American Apparel & Footwear Association. “It won’t be the full amount of the additional costs people are paying in the supply chain.”

Retail prices for apparel are likely to register increases in the low- to midsingle digits next summer or fall given the production schedule of apparel, Herman said. Pushing costs back up the supply chain is trickier now because of a consolidation of the sourcing base following the economic crisis, when many factories were forced to close.

Cotton prices were driven higher this year by a supply-and-demand ratio that is wildly out of whack, experts said. A surprise increase in demand for cotton followed the steep drop-off precipitated by the global economic crisis. Combining that with already high demand from China helped create a cotton shortfall. The supply side outlook was further impacted by inclement weather in some of the major cotton-producing countries such as China and Pakistan and export policies in India limiting cotton exports earlier this year. In addition, high prices of other commodities like corn and soybeans have stolen acreage from cotton in recent years as farmers shifted to other crops.

“The world supply-and-demand situation remains the tightest in the modern globalized era,” Cotton Incorporated said in its Monthly Economic Letter for December. “Much of the tightness at the world level can be attributed to China.”

India’s export policies were also under scrutiny this year. The country imposed a ban on raw cotton exports last spring in response to pressure from domestic manufacturers, who said they needed relief from high prices. While the outright ban was lifted several weeks later, India continues to eye its export levels.

“This year every bale counts,” said Jon Devine, an economist with Cotton Inc.

Despite high prices, demand for cotton remains so high that four months into the crop year for 2010-2011 almost 100 percent of the projected U.S. crop is already sold, he said.

World cotton production in 2010-2011 is forecast to be 115.5 million bales, a 14.5 percent increase over the prior year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a December report. The U.S. crop is predicted to be 18.3 million bales.

The USDA predicted that cotton usage worldwide will decline slightly in crop year 2010-2011 as cotton prices continue at “unprecedented levels amid tight supplies.” The drop is predicted to be only 2 percent, signaling it could be some time before a market correction in cotton prices takes hold.

The continued high prices could drive manufacturers to substitute other fibers, Raines said. While shipments of cotton apparel to the U.S. rose in October compared with a year earlier, its share of total textile and apparel imports sank to 38.3 percent, the second-lowest in more than two decades, according to a research note from FCStone.

Wool prices are also elevated more than they have been in years. Some of the price increase could be attributed to a slight rise in demand, but for the most part sources said the prices were driven by a production decline.

Wool production worldwide peaked around 1990, but it has been on the decline since then due to a range of factors, including profitability, and land and labor issues for sheep farmers, said Rita Kourlis Samuelson, wool marketing director for the American Sheep Industry Association, based in Englewood, Colo. Wool prices have fluctuated, but they have been trending up, especially recently, she said.

Worldwide, wool production and demand are roughly the same now following previous overproduction that had driven prices down. That ratio has evened out, Samuelson said. Depending on the indicator used, prices in October were close to a 10-year high, she said.

Synthetic prices are also up, a natural function of higher demand for the product driven by staggeringly high cotton prices and elevated oil prices, Raines said. But prices for polyester and other synthetics have not seen the steep increases that natural fibers have.

For more information, visit: http://www.wwd.com/business-news/raw-material-costs-taking-a-toll-3409343?module=recent_home


Recession-Proof Denim

May 26, 2009

For fashion blogger Jessica Morgan, finding the right jeans is almost a religious experience.

Morgan just bought a pair of $100 Madewell jeans, but her denim nirvana comes from True Religion Apparel Inc. of Vernon. Even at $170 to more than $300, the designer dungarees represent a sacrifice she’s willing to make despite the fraying economy.

“They make my butt look perky,” said Morgan, 33, who owns five pairs of True Religion Brand jeans. “That is the Holy Grail of jeans.”

“For women in Los Angeles, who wear jeans almost all of the time, it’s an investment,” said Morgan, half of the duo responsible for the popular “Go Fug Yourself” blog devoted to outing celebrity fashion victims. “If I wear them every day, they really are not that expensive.”

While consumer spending remains woefully depressed, expensive designer jeans have been one of the few bright spots for manufacturers and retailers, according to NPD Group Inc., a market research company.

Sales of premium brand jeans grew by 17% during 2008 and eked out a 2.3% increase in the most recent three-month period that ended in February, making premium denim one of a few “pockets of growth in an otherwise fizzling fashion market,” NPD Group said.

“That is the time period that was the most challenging in terms of consumer spending, so any growth during that time is significant,” said Marshal Cohen, NPD Group’s chief industry analyst. “With the newfound focus on fit by some of the commodity brands coupled with women’s never-ending quest for the perfect pair of jeans, the passion for denim is alive and well.”

Denim is one area in which some of the most fundamental rules of the global economy don’t appear to apply. Other industries turn to the least expensive foreign labor pools for production. Jeans makers have found that the high cost of manufacturing in the U.S. is actually a selling point.

“In the U.S., people care that their jeans are manufactured here,” said Eric Beder, an analyst for Brean Murray, Carret & Co. “To consumers outside the U.S., it’s crucial. Jeans are considered an American tradition. To be considered a real premium brand, you need to have the ‘made in the USA’ label on it.”

Adriano Goldschmied, the Italian designer of European jeans brands Diesel, Replay, Goldie and Rivet, agrees. In 2007, Goldschmied’s luxury denim label GoldSign merged with Paris-born Jerome Dahan’s Citizens of Humanity, based in Huntington Park.

“Nothing more than jeans represent the spirit of America,” Goldschmied said. “It’s about going to the mall, driving, having fun at the beach. Jeans still represent the life.”

Denim buyers aren’t going to pull the U.S. economy out of recession, but “it does show that there are people out there who are willing to pay for this sort of thing,” Beder said. “It’s a relative bargain. The most you are going to pay is $200 to $300. It’s affordable luxury. It lasts, and it has a lot of versatility that other clothing items do not have.”

Karen Short, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, said that this year has been tough for even the most resilient brands. Short noted that it is difficult to maintain sales at boutique clothing stores when the boutiques are folding.

Recent financial results show that the few publicly held premium jeans manufacturers are holding up fairly well.

True Religion beat analysts’ expectations with first-quarter net income that increased 10% to $7.6 million and net sales that rose 19% to $63.6 million, year over year. Joe’s Jeans Inc., a Commerce company whose pants retail for $120 and up, saw net income more than double to $800,000 and sales increase 8% to $16.5 million. Guess Inc. posted a 12% boost in adjusted net earnings of $55.3 million, excluding a $22.3-million non-cash impairment charge, and a 9% increase in revenue to $561.1 million in its most recent quarter.

But VF Corp., which owns brands such as low-cost Wrangler and high-cost 7 for All Mankind, said first-quarter profit fell 32% to $100.9 million and revenue slipped 7% to $1.73 billion as shoppers shied away from its upscale denim.

Some companies are trying to combat faltering consumer spending, in part by opening more of their own stores.

Joe’s Jeans and True Religion made up for weakness at department stores and boutiques by going directly to customers with their own stores and websites. True Religion’s direct sales increased 96% to $23.1 million. The company had 49 of its own stores by the end of the first quarter, up from 18 stores in March 2008.

“The most important thing about my jeans is the fit,” said True Religion chief Jeffrey Lubell, whose products are made in L.A. “I try to make your jeans feel like they have been in your closet for 30 years.”

At the recent opening of the True Religion store at the Westfield Century City Shopping Center, the retailer’s 51st, Scott Icenogle, a marketing director at MGM, bought a pair of straight-leg Ricky jeans. Icenogle, 39, said he was treating himself after getting a break on his 2008 taxes.

“They fit me well and I know they are going to last a long time,” the Hancock Park resident said.

Joelle Forte Casady of Castle Heights is another true believer in quality denim. The wardrobe stylist recently added to her collection of about 30 pairs, which includes five by Hudson Brand and 12 by Frankie B.

“I wear jeans five out of the seven days of the week. If I’m spending $150 to $250 a pair, I feel I’m getting my money out of it if I wear them 10 times, and I wear them a lot more than that,” Casady said. “That’s instead of some sexy heel shoes I might wear six times a year.”

“When you think it looks nice and feels right on you,” she said, “then it is worth every penny.”

For more information, visit: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-jeans22-2009may22,0,2251065.story