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Retailers Exceeding Expections Because Expectations Were Low

May 28, 2009

Several apparel makers and retailers, including Polo Ralph Lauren, posted better-than-expected quarterly results Wednesday, helped by tight management of expenses and inventories.

American Eagle Outfitters, which topped expectations by a penny, said it was seeing early indications of its business stabilizing.

Expectations have declined for apparel retailers and manufacturers, which are among the hardest hit sectors in the recession as consumers trim spending for items other than essentials like food.

Polo, a fashion wholesaler and retailer with upscale brands like Polo and Club Monaco, said net income tumbled to $45 million, or 44 cents a share, from $103.5 million, or $1 a share, a year earlier.

But excluding charges, Polo said it earned 86 cents a share, soaring past analysts’ average estimate of 40 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

Revenue in the period, which ended March 28 and was the fourth quarter of Lauren’s fiscal year, fell 1 percent to $1.22 billion, hurt by same-store sales declines and the stronger dollar, which reduced the value of overseas sales.

Stock in Lauren, which is based in New York, declined 35 cents, to close at $54.03 a share.

American Eagle, which caters to teenagers, posted a profit of $22 million, or 11 cents a share, down from $43.9 million, or 21 cents a share, a year earlier.

Excluding one-time items, profit was 8 cents a share, better than the 7 cents a share forecast by analysts.

Sales in the period, which ended May 2 and was the first quarter of American Eagle’s fiscal year, fell 4 percent, to $612 million.

Stock in American Eagle, which is based in Pittsburgh, fell 15 cents, to close at $14.33 a share.

For further information, visit: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/28/business/28retail.html


Uncertainty Still In the Air

May 27, 2009

Apparel retailers Chico’s FAS Inc, Charming Shoppes Inc, American Eagle Outfitters Inc and Polo Ralph Lauren Corp posted better-than-expected quarterly results Wednesday, helped by tight management of expenses and inventories.

American Eagle also said it is seeing early indications of its business stabilizing, though it forecast second-quarter earnings that could be below Wall Street estimates.

Apparel retailers and manufacturers have been among the hardest hit sectors in the recession as consumers cut back on spending for anything other than essentials like food.

Retailers have responded by cutting inventories and sharply reducing expenses in order to preserve profits or mitigate losses as sales fall.

While consumer confidence has improved, unemployment continues to rise, credit remains tight and home values continue to fall, keeping pressure on consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

“We are now two months into fiscal 2010 and there is still tremendous uncertainty regarding how long the current retrenchment in consumer spending will last or how much additional deterioration in personal consumption may occur,” Polo Chief Financial officer Tracey Travis said on a conference call with analysts.

PROFIT FALLS AT AMERICAN EAGLE, POLO

American Eagle, which caters to teenagers and young adults, said net income tumbled to $22.0 million, or 11 cents per share, in its first quarter, ended on May 2, from $43.9 million, or 21 cents per share, a year earlier.

Excluding items, profit was 8 cents per share. Analysts on average were expecting 7 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Sales fell 4 percent to $612 million.

On the women’s apparel side, Chico’s said net income in its first quarter was $14.5 million, or 8 cents per share, up from $12.7 million, or 7 cents per share, a year earlier.

Excluding charges, the company earned 11 cents per share, topping analysts’ average estimate of 8 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Chico’s cited a higher gross margin and lower expenses for its improved profit.

As previously reported, sales edged up to $410.6 million from $409.6 million. Same-store sales fell 3.2 percent versus the 17.5 percent drop in the year-ago quarter.

Charming Shoppes, which specializes in plus-size clothing with chains like Lane Bryant, had a surprise profit of 1 cent per share, excluding items, according to Reuters Estimates. Analysts were expecting a loss of 5 cents per share.

Charming Shoppes’ sales fell 16 percent, but total expenses also fell 16 percent.

Polo Ralph Lauren, the fashion company that makes upscale brands like Polo and Club Monaco, said net income was $45 million, or 44 cents a share in its fiscal fourth quarter ended March 28, down from $103.5 million, or $1 per share, a year earlier.

Excluding impairment and restructuring charges, the company said it earned 86 cents per share.

Analysts on average forecast 40 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Polo shares rose $3.20 to $57.58 on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday morning, while Chico’s rose 67 cents $9.52, and American Eagle rose 71 cents to $15.19. Charming Shoppes rose 15 cents to $3.73 on Nasdaq. For more information, visit: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/05/27/business/international-usa-retail-apparel.html


Recession-Proof Denim

May 26, 2009

For fashion blogger Jessica Morgan, finding the right jeans is almost a religious experience.

Morgan just bought a pair of $100 Madewell jeans, but her denim nirvana comes from True Religion Apparel Inc. of Vernon. Even at $170 to more than $300, the designer dungarees represent a sacrifice she’s willing to make despite the fraying economy.

“They make my butt look perky,” said Morgan, 33, who owns five pairs of True Religion Brand jeans. “That is the Holy Grail of jeans.”

“For women in Los Angeles, who wear jeans almost all of the time, it’s an investment,” said Morgan, half of the duo responsible for the popular “Go Fug Yourself” blog devoted to outing celebrity fashion victims. “If I wear them every day, they really are not that expensive.”

While consumer spending remains woefully depressed, expensive designer jeans have been one of the few bright spots for manufacturers and retailers, according to NPD Group Inc., a market research company.

Sales of premium brand jeans grew by 17% during 2008 and eked out a 2.3% increase in the most recent three-month period that ended in February, making premium denim one of a few “pockets of growth in an otherwise fizzling fashion market,” NPD Group said.

“That is the time period that was the most challenging in terms of consumer spending, so any growth during that time is significant,” said Marshal Cohen, NPD Group’s chief industry analyst. “With the newfound focus on fit by some of the commodity brands coupled with women’s never-ending quest for the perfect pair of jeans, the passion for denim is alive and well.”

Denim is one area in which some of the most fundamental rules of the global economy don’t appear to apply. Other industries turn to the least expensive foreign labor pools for production. Jeans makers have found that the high cost of manufacturing in the U.S. is actually a selling point.

“In the U.S., people care that their jeans are manufactured here,” said Eric Beder, an analyst for Brean Murray, Carret & Co. “To consumers outside the U.S., it’s crucial. Jeans are considered an American tradition. To be considered a real premium brand, you need to have the ‘made in the USA’ label on it.”

Adriano Goldschmied, the Italian designer of European jeans brands Diesel, Replay, Goldie and Rivet, agrees. In 2007, Goldschmied’s luxury denim label GoldSign merged with Paris-born Jerome Dahan’s Citizens of Humanity, based in Huntington Park.

“Nothing more than jeans represent the spirit of America,” Goldschmied said. “It’s about going to the mall, driving, having fun at the beach. Jeans still represent the life.”

Denim buyers aren’t going to pull the U.S. economy out of recession, but “it does show that there are people out there who are willing to pay for this sort of thing,” Beder said. “It’s a relative bargain. The most you are going to pay is $200 to $300. It’s affordable luxury. It lasts, and it has a lot of versatility that other clothing items do not have.”

Karen Short, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, said that this year has been tough for even the most resilient brands. Short noted that it is difficult to maintain sales at boutique clothing stores when the boutiques are folding.

Recent financial results show that the few publicly held premium jeans manufacturers are holding up fairly well.

True Religion beat analysts’ expectations with first-quarter net income that increased 10% to $7.6 million and net sales that rose 19% to $63.6 million, year over year. Joe’s Jeans Inc., a Commerce company whose pants retail for $120 and up, saw net income more than double to $800,000 and sales increase 8% to $16.5 million. Guess Inc. posted a 12% boost in adjusted net earnings of $55.3 million, excluding a $22.3-million non-cash impairment charge, and a 9% increase in revenue to $561.1 million in its most recent quarter.

But VF Corp., which owns brands such as low-cost Wrangler and high-cost 7 for All Mankind, said first-quarter profit fell 32% to $100.9 million and revenue slipped 7% to $1.73 billion as shoppers shied away from its upscale denim.

Some companies are trying to combat faltering consumer spending, in part by opening more of their own stores.

Joe’s Jeans and True Religion made up for weakness at department stores and boutiques by going directly to customers with their own stores and websites. True Religion’s direct sales increased 96% to $23.1 million. The company had 49 of its own stores by the end of the first quarter, up from 18 stores in March 2008.

“The most important thing about my jeans is the fit,” said True Religion chief Jeffrey Lubell, whose products are made in L.A. “I try to make your jeans feel like they have been in your closet for 30 years.”

At the recent opening of the True Religion store at the Westfield Century City Shopping Center, the retailer’s 51st, Scott Icenogle, a marketing director at MGM, bought a pair of straight-leg Ricky jeans. Icenogle, 39, said he was treating himself after getting a break on his 2008 taxes.

“They fit me well and I know they are going to last a long time,” the Hancock Park resident said.

Joelle Forte Casady of Castle Heights is another true believer in quality denim. The wardrobe stylist recently added to her collection of about 30 pairs, which includes five by Hudson Brand and 12 by Frankie B.

“I wear jeans five out of the seven days of the week. If I’m spending $150 to $250 a pair, I feel I’m getting my money out of it if I wear them 10 times, and I wear them a lot more than that,” Casady said. “That’s instead of some sexy heel shoes I might wear six times a year.”

“When you think it looks nice and feels right on you,” she said, “then it is worth every penny.”

For more information, visit: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-jeans22-2009may22,0,2251065.story


Where Else Can Retailers Cut Their Costs?

May 22, 2009

U.S. retailers, which have banked heavily on cost cuts to guard margins in the recession, may be running out of ways to trim expenses further — putting future profits in jeopardy, unless consumers open their wallets soon.

“No company on the face of the earth can cost-cut its way to sustained success … You need to have sales,” Home Depot Inc Chief Financial Officer Carol Tome said in an interview this week.
From slashing jobs to shuttering stores, from maintaining leaner inventories to negotiating for lower rents, retailers seem to have done it all to preserve profits or mitigate losses in a dismal sales climate.

Some have outlined plans to postpone expansion, reduce advertising and wind down secondary brands, while a few others have gone a step further and found more creative ways to cut costs.

Home improvement chain Home Depot has made significant cost savings by using less energy in its stores. Some companies that deliver office products to retailers have started using new technology in their trucks to ensure higher fuel efficiency.

But the cost cuts can only go so far, as retailers see sales slammed by the recession.

“Retailers are very closely looking at costs now and I think today they are ahead of the curve … I think that the costs will be out of companies … I don’t think revenues are going to come back as quickly,” said William Susman, president and chief operating officer of retail investment bank Financo.

One way retailers are cutting costs is by streamlining their supply chains and purchasing.
Womens’ apparel retailer AnnTaylor Stores Corp said it has gone from about 100 apparel vendors at the end of 2008 to about 75 in the first quarter and will continue to try to cut down on vendors for its Ann Taylor and Ann Taylor LOFT stores.

Both analysts and investors laud the cost-cutting efforts, as they think retailers are facing the question of survival more than anything else right now.

“The retailers who haven’t done this (cut costs) … some of them who have not successfully been able to offset sales declines … have not survived,” Colin McGranahan, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, said.

“We have seen Circuit City, Linens ‘n’ Things, Mervyns go out of business and many retailers that are going bankrupt.”

The companies that have responded well — those which have cut costs and have better consumer propositions — will emerge winners at the other side of this economy, McGranahan said.

“Retailers need to adapt to the environment. They need to bring their costs down because the customer is not buying as much,” Financo’s Susman said, adding: “When the market rebounds, they should also be poised for much greater profitability.”

So, how much more can they can slash and burn? Not much, most agree.

“You can only trim so much. If you go into one of the LOFT stores — there’s not that much clothing on the racks, there’s not that many racks to begin with, and there’s not that many associates working in the stores. You can tell they’ve cut back,” Wall Street Strategies analyst Brian Sozzi said.

“So how much fat do you have left to cut? And the first round of store cuts for them — that was low-hanging fruit … But what about the rest of the stores?” Sozzi said.

“I’m very curious to see how the second half plays out for these guys (retailers), because at some point, you have to make a bet on inventory; and if demand’s not there, we could be talking about earnings misses in the fourth quarter like we saw last year,” he said.

Bernstein’s McGranahan named Best Buy Co Inc, Staples Inc and Home Depot as good examples of companies which have cut costs in an aggressive but intelligent fashion.

Although most experts see sense in cost-cutting efforts at retailers, many warned the moves should be executed with caution.

“They have got to be careful how much they will cut of their staffing levels … If people can’t get help in stores, that is a recipe for retail disaster,” said Britt Beemer, founder of America’s Research Group, which polls consumers on spending behavior.

Beemer’s concerns aren’t unwarranted.

Denise C, a 27-year old from Queens shopping in midtown Manhattan, walked out of a couple of apparel stores because she was disappointed with the quality of in-store service.
“People just don’t really seem to care anymore” she said.

For further information, visit: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8521426